Crisis Group says Sheikh Hasina comeback unlikely

International Crisis Group analysts assessed that ousted Bangladeshi leader Sheikh Hasina faces minimal prospects for political resurgence following her conviction and death sentence for crimes against humanity during protests that killed over 1,000 people. Senior consultant Thomas Kean stated the Awami League cannot rejoin electoral politics while Hasina maintains party control, though he cautioned against violent responses from supporters or excessive government countermeasures ahead of scheduled elections.

United Nations investigations previously established that security force actions resulting in as many as 1,400 deaths occurred with full coordination from political leadership, including Hasina and former home minister Asaduzzaman Khan. Critics questioned the rapid tribunal proceedings and limited defense resources during the trial conducted without the defendants present, reflecting systemic judicial weaknesses that interim authorities have inadequately addressed since assuming power.

Kean emphasized that procedural concerns should not diminish accountability for the former prime minister’s conduct or actions by Awami League officials and security personnel during the crackdown.